2100.org

World Space Program

see for the club

	Workshop President : Karl Doetsch
	Workshop reporter : Géraldine Naja

First Meeting : Montréal, August 23, 1997

Second Meeting : Torino, October 7, 1997

Third Meeting : Paris, Thursday April 2, 1998,

The following papers have been discussed at the third meeting ; They must be considered as working documents. Anyhow, we find positive to make them accessible for the moment, in case some comments should come from readers that could help further elaboration. If you have such ideas, please send them to gnaja@hq.esa.fr or deschamps@2100.org

Le contexte des programmes spatiaux a profondément changé depuis l'ouverture des pays de l'Est.

1- Au début, dans les années 60, le financement du programme spatial, en Europe comme aux USA (Appollo), était alimenté par la rivalité entre l'Est et l'Ouest. Dans les années 80, avec le SDI, cette rivalité était toujours présente et continuait à mobiliser des financements considérables jusqu'à la fin de la guerre froide.

2- Depuis 1990, cette motivation politico-militaire s'est estompée, et les agences spatiales ont eu de plus en plus de difficultés à obtenir les crédits qu'elles escomptaient. La NASA, par exemple, espérait encore en 91 de budgets de 35 à 40 G$ en 96-97. Elle doit en fait se contenter de 13. Les financements publics n'augmentent donc pas comme elle l'espérait. Mais ils réussissent à se maintenir, et un certain nombre de signaux positifs récents laissent espérer de futurs accroissements.

L'Europe a poursuivi son effort, avec toutefois un budget spatial qui n'est que moins du cinquième de celui des USA, que ce soit en termes réels ou en proportion du PIB (0,9 pour mille contre 5,4). la continuité européenne s'explique par le fait qu'Ariane est dédiée à des lancements commercialisables et apparaît donc comme un succès industriel, la conquête d'une part importante (les deux tiers) du marché mondial des lancements.

3- Pendant que la Russie s'essouffle à tenter de maintenir sa position, de nouveaux acteurs émergent : le Japon, puis la Chine, l'Inde, demain peut-être d'autres. En 1994, ils ne représentaient que 10 % de l'effort mondial connu. Compte tenu de leur croissance économique et de la force de leurs motivations, alors que l'Amérique et l'Europe sont hésitantes, il faut s'attendre à ce qu'ils représentent plus de la moitié dans le courant du siècle prochain.

4- Le coût de satellisation devrait diminuer au début du siècle. La multiplication des lancements en orbite basse amènera une industrialisation des petits lanceurs et une concurrence accrue, car les pays émergents tenteront de se placer sur ce marché. D'autre part, une combinaison intelligente avion-fusée permettrait d'espérer diminuer d'un ordre de grandeur (un facteur 10) le coût d'accès à une station spatiale. Il faut toutefois aborder cette question avec réalisme : le paysage du spatial ne changera pas significativement tant que le cout de la satellisation n 'aura pas été effectivement divisé par 10, ce qui suppose une nouvelle génération technologique, soit plusieurs décennies, et d'importants investissements publics. On observe, à ce sujet, que les prévisions américaines sont plutôt optimistes et les européennes plutot sceptiques.

5- Des acteurs non étatiques entrent en scène massivement cette année 1997, avec les constellations de satellites de télécommunication directe (Iridium, Globalstar, etc..). Chacun de ces projets représente un investissement de l'ordre de 13 G$, donc comparable au budget annuel de la NASA. Les promoteurs en sont des entreprises privées.

Leur arrivée est la manifestation que, près de 40 ans après le premier Spoutnik, une partie de l'activité spatiale est finalement devenue rentable.

Au Congrès américain, les responsables du spatial font comme si tout le spatial, désormais, devait tout de suite se rentabiliser. C'est évidemment une illusion. Ils souhaitent avant tout secouer les lourdeurs bureaucratiques liées au vieillissement des organisations. Ils ont obtenu une sorte de privatisation de la NASA, subdivisée en quatre compagnies, chacune chargée de vendre ses services et sommée de devenir bénéficiaire.

Dans ces conditions, étant donnée la diversité des acteurs, est-il encore possible de réfléchir à un programme spatial mondial ? Est-ce que même la notion de programme a un sens ?

La réponse est oui, car le principal obstacle à la concertation, la tension de la guerre froide, a disparu. Le monde n'est pas pour autant paisible, mais il est néanmoins possible de discuter entre professionnels, sans crainte ni arrière pensée, du rôle de l'Espace au prochain siècle et des différents morceaux du puzzle qu'il convient de construire. Par rapport à l'avenir de l'Espèce humaine, l'Espace a en effet une signification qui, au delà de la logique des marchés, appelle une réflexion de fond, une démarche de la conscience.

Il ne peut s'agir d'un cadre normatif car, évidemment, chacun des acteurs a et conserve sa souveraineté et sa liberté. Un tel programme aurait nécessairement le statut d'un discours d'experts, élaboré par des professionnels dans le seul but de clarifier leurs idées sur l'avenir de l'Espace. Il aurait aussi valeur de proposition sur ce qui concerne les financements gouvernementaux.

Au moment où les crédits militaires sont stables ou en diminution, la recherche et l'industrie de pointe ont besoin d'un relai de commandes publiques, orientées vers le financement de réalisations nouvelles qui permette le processus d'apprentissage d'où est issue l'essentiel de la technique moderne (microélectronique, matériaux.. ). Parmi tous les domaines possibles, l'Espace est sans doute celui qui offre les meilleurs possibilités d'acquisition de nouveaux savoirs faire dans les techniques de pointe.

Les industriels engagés dans la haute technologie, qui peuvent mieux que d'autres mesurer l'apport qu'ont permis les commandes publiques, devraient être les soutiens naturels d'un tel programme et constituer un lobby pour le promouvoir.

Néanmoins, la réflexion engagée ici, que nous avons appelée World Space Program (WSP) n'a pas pour objectif de se faire l'écho de tel ou tel groupe d'intérêt. L'enjeu de l'Espace concerne l'avenir de l'espèce humaine, et doit être traité en tant que tel, au delà des intérêts particuliers. Le but de WSP est donc d'articuler un discours aussi cohérent que possible sur la place du spatial au siècle prochain et les transformations qu'il devrait apporter dans différents registres, tels que les suivants :

Even with a conservative assessment of the population growth, the Earth will have to supply by the next century food and resources for 10 to 12 billion inhabitants, that is the double of today's population. According to most experts, this should raise no basic problem as Earth's theoreticaI resources can provide for up to 30 billion inhabitants, with appropriate and innovative agricultural techniques. Still, this means that space means will probabIy have an enabling role to play for such food production.

Already today, farrning is supported by space technologies in many areas of the world. It is possible to measure soil humidity and the status of crop growth from space, and these measurements can be combined so as to define, in conjunction with automatic GPS assisted tractors, the most beneficial quantities of fertiliser and pesticide. This allows to reduce the application of these chemicals with potentially harmful side effects whilst maintaining crop returns. The European Union is a major user of space products for its agricultural policy, to monitor that quotas are respected and that the foressen arnount of soils are cultivated.

Beyond the extapolation of these trends to the next century, it is likely that food production will benefit from space in other ways. One can imagine:

-active climate control (e.g. artificial sun) to multiply the number of crops and increase their return

-selection of quality soils

fishing assisted from space to detect fish stocks, and monitoring of fishing to prevent over-fishing and exhaustion of certain areas.

For all regulation policies related to food production (agriculture, cattle, fishing, etc), a combination of space-based and other monitoring systems vill be required to ensure that the regulation is effective.

On estime que, chaque année, 41000 km3 d'eau retournent de la terre à la mer, équilibrant ainsi la quantité de vapeur d'eau qui passe de la mer à la terre. Là-dessus, 27.000 km3 proviennent d'eaux de crue, inutilisables, et 5.000 km tombent sur des zones inhabitées.

Il reste, pour l'homme, 9.000 km3 d'eau douce par an. En principe, cette quantité est largement suffisante pour les populations du prochain siècle. Mais les ressources ne sont pas uniformes, et l'eau, à la différence du pétrole, du fer, de l'aluminium, des phosphates, I'eau, donc, s'écoule, traverse les frontières et peut être arrêtée (barrages), distribuée, dispersée par les uns et les autres.

D'où les tensions fortes et croissantes que l'on voit naître entre Etats-Unis et Mexique, Tchéquie et Hongrie, Israël et ses voisins, ... et bientôt d'autres pays.

Cet enjeu économique et humain va probablement, d'après certains, devenir majeur au cours du prochain siècle.

Pour faire le point objectif des dégâts potentiels et pour prévenir les graves atteintes a des territoires et les fortes tensions locales qui pourraient se créer, des outils indiscutables seront nécessaires. Il faudra

-Comprendre ce qui se passe : les mécanismes de désertification, de salinisation des sols, de renouvellement des nappes phréatiques et des eaux souterraines, ...

-Etablir et faire approuver un "code de bonne conduite" internationale, ...

-Surveiller la bonne application des régles ainsi décidées.

Quel rôle peut jouer l'espace, dans le long terme ?

1. Aider à la compréhension des mécanismes physiques (désertification, salinisation, ...) qui servira de base à la modélisation

La modélisation, comprise par tous, permettra de faire accepter une réglementation internationale, ou, du moins, un code de bonne conduite. La bonne observation (ou la violation) de cette réglementation sera surveillée par des systèmes spatiaux.

2. Aider à l'évaluation des stocks deau (nappe phréatique, épaisseur des couches neigeuses, ...), hauteurs d'eau dans les lacs, ...).

3. Dans une perspective beaucoup plus "long terme", on peut imaginer:

a) intervenir dans les conditions de déclenchement des précipitations.

b) optimiser, par la connaissance prévisionnelle des courants océaniques, le transport de blocs de glaces polaires entre Antarctique et faibles latitudes.

Shelter (B Erb)

Space In Service of Human Shelter

A World Space Program which addresses the various needs of humans and their environment can play several roles regarding shelter. Space can serve, predominantly, in the area of observations from space which provide useful information. The key dimensions of such information are the following:

Geographic -where is, or where should, shelter be located with regard to parameters such as: existing habitations, resources (agricultural water, building materials, etc.), sensitive habitats for non-human species advantageous locations for protection from weather, opportunities for waste disposal, availability of transportation etc.

Architectural - how is, or how should, shelter be arranged to minimize impact to land use, maximize access to transportation, etc.

Habitability - when should humans be advised to "take shetter" temporarily (storm, smog, ozone, ot smoke alerts, etc.) a dimension clearly tied to disaster warnings, or to relocate in the face of observed or predicted hazards such as sea level rise, landslides, earthquakes, etc. ?

Awareness - of environmental threats and a sensitivity to resource use could be promoted by space observations of the Earth and such an awareness used to motivate people to demand more modest shelter. The Earth cannot survive if all its inhabitants strive to achive single-family homes of 500 square meters on 5 hectare parcels of land.

Nowadays space activities facilitate the education development, first of all, through stimulating scientific-technoloGical progress and creating the necessity in the training of specialists for managing the complicated rocket-space technology and for the new fields of scientific research. Space activities have broadened our knowledge of the Earth and Universe considerably and given impetus to the development of fundamental problems of physics, chemistry, and biology. Modern communication means, including space ones, have improved greatly informing the population of different countries about geography, history, and modern life of remote parts of the world. This raises the interest of pupils and wide public to science and creates stimules for educational level growth.

Teaching various school subjects becomes brighter and more comprehensible with using astronautical materials. Many interesting physical problems can be composed on space topics and then used in intellectual competitions Astronauts from the USA, Russia, and other countries conducted special lessons from space for schoolchildren, the lessons showed peculiarities of physical laws action under weightlessness conditions, modern technology operation. These undertakings provided the possibility of seeing our planet from space for pupils. Thus, space role in education is positive undoubtedly, though it is not crucial for the develoPment of the latter.

In the 21st century the described factors will remain in force, incidentally we should expect the appearance of new trends of space activities influence on the education sphere- The increase of space part in solving the global power and ecological problems, new space projects (settling the Moon, flights to remote planets) will result in considerable expansion of the place belonging to astronautical themes in school subject programmes. Awareness of mutual dependence of peoples and infirmity of civilization achievements will enhance the humane trend in education. New philosophy which will be brought to mankind by space activities development, will become the basis of the future education system bringing up people with the high level of responsibility and active life position and with the ability of coming to mutual understanding and compromises. Naturally, new knowledge and technologies will find their place in the education system of the next century.

Sharp increase of the distant education system will be an important aspect of the ruture space activities influence on education. The problem of providing an educational level which is necessary for society with standards of life approximating to the present-day level of developed countries can be solved most efficiently for the population of rural countries with using modern space communications. If the growth of the number of schools functioning by the standard scheme is connected with proportional (and surpassing if remote regions are under consideration) rate of expenses growth, the development of a satellite education system needs great investments at the initial stage, but then proves to be economically reasonable. This fact predetexmines interest to such systems in India, Latin America, South-East Asia, and Africa.

In general, space activities influence on education should be evaluated as facilitating in prospect.

Dr. David R Criswell, Inst. for Space Systems Operations, University of Houston, Houston, Texas 77204-5505 713-743-9135 / f-7134 dcriswell@uh.edu

In 1800 most people still lived on farms or in small villages. They lived in approximate balance with the energy, water, and life-flows of the biosphere. By 2000 over half the human race will choose to live in large cities. The thermal energy and labor-intensive industrial advances of the 1700 and 1800s enabled this tansition. The world's urban and rural populations now live far out of balance with the living and fossil resources of the biosphere. Major international treaties now recognize mankind's assaults on the limited biosphere. Limits on humans and their needs are proposed to deal with depletion of ozone, plant life, and increasing aunospheric C02 by the fossil industry. Humans must and can make the transition to solar energy during first part of the 21st Century to extend the newly emerging world prosperity.

Sun - Moon - Microwave Beam- Rectenna

Energy and economic prospenty requires by the year 2050 the 10 billion people -of the world be supplied with 6 kWt/person or 2 kWe/person.(2), "t" refers to thermal power and "e" to electric power. This is the per capita power now used in western Europe and Japan. By 2050 a prosperous world needs approximately 20 TWe (tera = T=million of billion).

There are severe fiundamental problems with global prosperity based on fossil fuels (3) Burning the fossil carbon will increase atmospheric C02 by a factor of 15 or more. Total fuel costs, direct plus indirect will likely rise as the non-recoverable fuels approach economic exhaustion. Higher indirect energy costs can also result from energy wars (Iraqi conflicts, 1990-97, World War I & II), increases in supply uncertainty, and higher production costs. Fin ally, the world cannot afford to build and operate the fossil fuel, nuclear, and terrestial solar plants to use 60 TWt to provide 20 GWe of electric power by 2050 and thereafter.

Future economic development requires access to much larger supplies of affordable commercial power. Solar power gathered on the Moon, and later in space, can be converted to microwaves and beamed to earth (Figllre). 2, The facilities established on the Moon to produce the Lunar Solar Power System can be expanded during the 21st century to develop industry in cis-lunar space and enable large-scale habitation of space.

Changing to solar-electric-power from the Moon will allow humanity to avoid the effects of the depletion of fossil fuels. By the middle of the next century, lunar power industries can be sufficiently experienced and profitable to diversify into a wide range of other products, services, and locations (3) Specialized žndusties on asteroids and other moons will arise. Humans can begin the transition to living independent of Earth. People can afford to move to space and return the womb of biosphere Earth to the protection and evolution of life.

References

1. Kennedy, P. (1993) Preparing for the Twenty-first Century.1st ed, NewYork: Random House, 428pp.

2. D. R Criswell (1996, April/May) Lunar-solar power system: Needs, concept, challenges, pay-offs, IEEE Potentials, 4-7.

3.D. R. Criswell (1997, October) Challenges of commercial space solar power, in 48th Cong. Intern. Astron. Fed.,IAF-97-R.2.04, pp. 7, Turin, Italy. Draft; World Space Program (23 Aug. 97 Action Item) Energy Section

Copyright C) 1997 by David R. Criswell. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astonautics, Inc., with permission. Released to IAF/AL4A to publish in all forms.

Security can be seen as a twofold concept: the traditional understanding of security, related to defence activities and peace-keeping, and a more global one, seen as protection against large threats, be they natural such as major catastrophes, or man-made such as terrorism, drug dealing and organised crimes. Both understandings of this concept will however require a powerful space component in the next century. The Gulf War has already demonstrated that future large-scale conflicts will be won thanks to technology, in particular space technologies. Even more guerrilla-type wars such as in former Yugoslavia make use of information, comrnunications, etc. provided by space means. As concerns 'civil security', it is also obvious that already today, the management of major catastrophes (e.g. floods, earthquakes . ) makes use of space products and services. This trend will probably develop considerably in the next decades. Even though it is not widely used today, it is highly likely that space will be a useful tool in the fighting against threats such as drug dealing or organised crimes. Finally, space will be an essential weapon in the ultimate war, the war for cultural domination, whose first signs can already be seen today.

It is thus unclear whether a world space programme can be envisaged for security in all its meanings. It is certainly the case as concerns civil protection against major risks but it can of course be excluded when it comes to national security (or regional, or continental...). It is likely that huge improvements will take place in that latter understanding - laser weapons in space ? Ultra-precise localisation and positioning systems allowing to track every mobile or hurnan on the surface of Earth, as already envisaged by the USAF? Electronic warfare allowing to destroy, before any armed conflict has even started, the communications and observation capabilities of the enemy ? Broadcasting used for disinformation prior to any armed engagement ? But these will not be part of a world space programme, by their very essence.

It is thus more interesting to focus that prospective reflection on 'civil security'. Here are a few directions along which next century's improvements may be directed :

-earthquakes and volcanic eruptions will be predicted by space means (differential interferometry ? Atrnospheric precursors ?), which will allow the timely evacuation of concerned populations. Floods and major climatic hazards (storms, hurricanes, droughts...) will also be predicted and monitored in real-time. Forest fires will be detected as soon as they start and thus will be rapidly extinguished before damage has taken place. All rescue operations will be conducted thanks to space means. Continuous monitoring of the environment will allow a close watch and punishment of polluters (e. . g. for oil spills, industrial pollution, etc). More generally, the three functions associated with the reduction of disasters - "watch", for observation, early warning and detection, "warning" for alert, and "rescue" for assistance and crisis management - will be to a large extent performed from space or with a combination of ground, airborne and space means.

-Drug culture will be monitored from space and possibly even eradicated from space.

-Large migrations will be monitored from space and warning will be given in a sufficient time to prevent associated troubles.

-Criminals will be followed individually upon release thanks to a positioning system implanted once they have been captured. This will prevent any second offence.

 The July 1993 Mississipi river flood, combined data from SPOT and RadarSat ©CNES 1988 and ESA 1993

Communications

Draft, March 27, 1998 Karl Doetsch

Of all living species, the capacity to communicate is most widely developed by humans with their ability not only to communicate in real time, but to store, retrieve and share the data, information and knowledge generated throughout the millennia of human development. With the advent first of the printed media, and then of the electronics media, global mass communications as well as real-time distance communications between individuals have been enabled, with an ensuing and profound influence on the development of societies and their values. Today, with the multimedia capacity brought about by space and ground electronic transmission, storage and retrieval systems, it is possible for people all over the world to communicate instantaneously and to access enormous amounts of information without leaving their home or office environments. This capacity is not yet available to all segments of the world's population because the necessary infrastructure is not uniformly developed, but is it clear that one of the critical elements of societal development has become the ability to communicate widely and freely.

In the developed world, most of the population has ready access to telephone lines. In the developing world one person in 100 has such access. Similarly, radio, television and access to the Internet is available to essentially each member of the developed world society but only to about 1 person in ... in the developing world because of the expense of wiring the communities and achieving an acceptable financial return on the investment. Space allows the global, wireless provision of these capacities.

Space-based communications systems have and will continue to change universal access to broad-band multi-media information over the next decades. Space enables global communications without the cost of establishing first, permanent ground-based infrastructure networks. Space systems augment and supplement ground-based capacities and, at times, are the only means available for instantaneous communications.

Space communication systems were the first space application to become commercially viable for private sector development. Today, many new commercial systems are being proposed and being put in place to allow direct communications of voice, video and data between any points on earth. Access to these space systems will be widespread in the early part of the next century and they will be complemented by corresponding enhancements of the ground infrastructure to provide a global, integrated communications system.

As these communications systems become more capable, they will also allow many forms of space derived data, ranging from earth observations and navigation information to be transmitted, transformed and integrated for individual use. They will enable the shift of societies towards an ever more democratic rule. Space communications systems will also enable tele-health and tele-education, bringing the resources of large urban centres to remote areas. Eventually, they will make unnecessary the migration of humans to large urban centres. This factor alone may cause a significant reversal of one of the dominant past trends considered necessary for societies to become developed, and could have a profound affect on land use and pollution levels.

Space communications are essential for understanding our solar system and, more broadly, the universe, and for the eventual establishment of outposts and settlements near earth, for example on the moon or Mars or in space cities developed along the lines proposed by O'Neill.

What are the characteristics of the new space communications systems?

Networks of satellites in Low Earth Orbit ( below 2000km), Medium Earth Orbit (at approximately 10,000km) and Geosynchronous Orbit ( at 36,000km) will share the task of providing for voice, video and data communications. These networks will be seamlessly connected with the ground infrastructure to make the user unaware of the system elements he is using at any time and to provide him with global coverage. Space system frequencies will increase beyond the Ka band, digital processing will be the norm, and power and data handling and vectoring between satellites will be enhanced dramatically to allow widespread use of ground stations that are small, mobile and sophisticated. Space system infrastructure development costs will range from $2 to 13 billion dollars for each system, and these infrastructures will be funded through venture capital.

Space communications systems will profoundly affect the amount of information available to every citizen of the world. They will also profoundly affect the development of our societies through the enablement of an information age and the ensuing move towards knowledge-based economies that will dominate global activity.

Industrialisation in space was a popular subject a few years ago but has lost much of its appeal today. This proves only one thing : that the commercial market is unable to have a long terrn view (with the exception, possibly, of Japan). Financial investments expect a rapid return, which, in spite of the over-optimistic studies published under the aegis of NASA in the late eighties and early nineties, present space technologies were unable to provide. The access to orbit remains costly and hazardous, the time to prepare a space mission, excessively long.

However in the long term it is clear that new advances will be made in propulsion and other critical technologies, and that the perrnanent presence of man in space will be a fact.

History shows that the significant technological advances have always been made on public funds. Rescarch carried out in Universities and govemment funded laboratories were at the basis of the progresses made in such fields as metallurgy, crystallography or chemistry which made the large modern factories possible. The investments made by governrnents for defence purpose have played the major role in the development of rocket propulsion, micro-electronics and all major technologies that are now exploited cornmercially by larve money-making industrial conglomerates.

Hoping, as NASA or CNES or ESA did (or, more probably, pretending to do so in order to convince their political authorities to provide adequate funding) that it would be possible to invent on the ground fabrication processes that could be installed on-board the shuttle or a space station, manned or automatic, and irnmediately bring revenues capable of amortizing the money invested in a few years was ignoring the lessons of the past. The space station would probably be better off if one had started by installing in space a governrnent-financed laboratory, large enough to host a dozen or several dozens of professors and post-graduate students in physical chemistry or some similar disciplines.

It is true that present government lack vision, and, as a consequence, money. The idea presented by many authors that societies need a period of rest of some 50 years between two large ventures suggests that we have perhaps to wait year 2015, i.e. 50 years after the Apollo programme, before governmental space programmes resurrect from their present coma. But whazt is certain is that, sooner or later, space will be taken seriously again, and that this will result in a permanent and abundant presence of men on-board orbital stations or on dwellings on the Moon, in the asteroids or on Mars.

The first consequence of this will be that what is now considered as science fiction will be comrnon place, and that processes that are considered today as unrealistic will be standard. Space industrialisation is not a dream. It is a certainty. Sure, as Niels Bohr used to say, nothing is more difficult than prediction, especially about the future. Still, when the wine-drinking Romans invaded Gaule, it could be predicted with a good chance of being right that, sooner or later, wine yards would be planted north or Narbonne. What we can say is that, now that industry-loving man has found the way to leave the earth surface, it is just a matter of time before we see industries in space.

Which directions could take space industrialisation?

Here, of course, one can only speculate, but two directions seem probable.

The first is that experimental studies in space will put into evidence physical and chemical phenomena that do not exist or are not detectable on the earth surface. In the above mentioned studies, a nurnber of such phenomena had been preliminary identified, such as the possibility to grow large crystals, to produce ultra-pure alloys, ultra-pure vaccines etc...When permanent laboratories, equipped with performing scientific installations and permanently manned by professional and very motivated researchers will have been installed, the catalogue of effects of this nature will grow extremely quickly, and industrial exploitation will follow.

The second direction is that indicated by Kraft Ehricke many years ago. It is a safe bet that, in a few years from now, a number of activities will be simply banned from the surface of the earth, because they are too dangerous or too polluting.

Let us consider the example of biological engineering. Modern laboratories develop at present substances a very small quantity of which is capable of affecting all living beings (or a few individual species only) in very extended geographical zone. It is foolish to let such activities take place under the atmosphere, and, when a few accidents will have occurred - which, if our society continues to be under the overwhelming influence of the money-makers, is very likely : after all terrible accidents already took place in Seveso (Italy), Bophal (India) and other pIaces the legislator will see how foolish it is and exile all hazardous industrial laboratories and factories in space.

Let us consider another example : waste disposal. At present, incredible quantities of waste : nuclear, chemical, biological are disposed of in the seas, on the ground or under the ground. They not only constitute an incornfort or a threat for our generations, but a terrifically negative inheritance for the generations that will follow us. Studies have shown that the high activity nuclear waste produced by french nuclear reactors represent the payload of fifty Ariane V launchers in the hypothesis that this launcher was conditioned to carry this waste on a safe orbit about the sun. At the present time, our administrations say : fifty Ariane V per year ! Just imagine the cost ! And the danger ! What if a launch aborts ? It is much more advantageous put this waste in safe containers under the ground. There are people who are not troubled by the fact that the life-time of such waste is superior to 2000 years and that it is impossible to be sure that a containment technique will last for that period of time. There are people which consider that the heat dissipated by such waste, capable of provoking a measurable elevation of the temperature of the fields and pastures at the vertical of the waste depot, is only a minor hindrance. As soon as space transportation systems will have reached a decently low cost and a safety comparable to that of airplaines or, better of railway systems - which is possible, common sense will come back. Society will have no reason any more to close its eyes to the problem of industrial waste, and waste disposal in space (in the sun or in other places where they can disappear without causing any harm) will become a reality.

These are only two examples. Many others can be and will certainly be found in future years but they should be sufficient to make our point clear : Space industrialisation will become a reality of major importance in the next century.

Most present analyses (see, for example, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) establish that, if there is no modification of the way we perform most of our activities (industry, agriculture, breeding,..), before the end of the next century, major changes will take place in : sea level, average temperatures, melting of the continental ice sheet, rainfall, desert areas... These changes, largely attributable to human activity, may affect the life conditions or even endanger the survival capability of large amounts of population. Such an unregulated behaviour, "Business as usual" would be a dead-end. But a regulation would make sense only if all nations understand it, approve it, and trust the observance by others.Space has a unique role to play at the beginning and at the end of this process.

- One has to observe to be able to understand : 1st generation of space systems (Envisat, EOS, ...)

- One has to understand to be able to modelize

- One has to forecast to define the proper regulation strategy

- There will be an actual observance of regulations only if there is a technique to detect violations : 2nd generation of space systems (if feasible)

To reach concurrence in an international agreement, it will be necessary, during the processing of the data of the first generation of Space systems, to associate representatives of all countries to the scientific work, through intense dissemination of data and large scale international cooperation in order to go towards a universally shared understanding of what happens and of what we should do.

As stated hereabove, regulation will take place only if there is a reliable technique allowing to identify the violations (e.g. source and rate of excessive release of Carbon dioxyde or Methane). Space is challenged to find a solution to this question.

Time is running fast.The time constants (thermal inertia of the oceans, decay of greenhouse gases) are such that decades of evolution are already stored in our "climatic machine". Any strong decision taken in the midterm will not change things before a considerable delay.

This is, literally speaking, an issue of geo-politics.

An other item will become crucial for our activity in the next century. The accumulation of debris in orbit. If nothing is done, this can become the major limit to the lifetime of space systems. An active destruction process has to be initiated.

Monitoring of the local environment

In the long term, drones and HALEs will become important actors in this domain. Composed operation of systems having the 2 components (airborne and inorbit) is probably the solution of the future.Accordingly, Space Agencies can not neglect the dynamics of the technological progresses of drones and HALEs

Disasters

It is clear that the services provided by Space (meteorology, communications,optical or electromagnetic imaging,..) have an increased importance in the situation of crisis,when conventionnal ground infrastructure may have been destroyed. The question is : how efficiently can they be mobilized ? Are they sufficiently well-known to be pertinently utilized in the hour, when the emergency is there ? Are the institutions, the mechanisms, the points of contact well identified ? I think we should propose that like in all large collectivities, "alert exercises" be conducted on an international basis to familiarize with the use of Space tools. It could be done under the aegis of the U.N.and for a reasonable cost.

The question of early warning thanks to the detection of presursors of natural disasters has made lot of progress during these last decades. Now, there are assumptions to verify, and data to be acquired in order to validate correlations... What are the directions to explore ?

A direction may be radar interferometry to detect the first displacements precursors of a volcanic crisis or a big landslide (no need for a new Space system, ERS, JERS, .. are just fine, but what is required is to implement the means for systematic processing).

An other idea with the same technique is to create interferometric image pairs separated by 15 to 20 years on the same zone to appreciate the displacement of the terrain and pin point possible blocking points li kely to reveal as critical sites for a future crisis.

An other direction, which should be experimentally validated, is the detection of low-frequency emission in the ionosphere..

It is reasonable to assume that, during the coming century, adequate (if not 100% perfect) warning will be provided by space systems. The question is : which organization ? New schemes have to be imagined for the "planetary public service" of the future.

There are both natural and man-induced factors which affect the environment on local, regional and global scales. These can have both a long and a short terrn effect. The present concern is climate change which is discussed in the preceding chapter. But, although the impact of climate change on our environment may be dramatic there are other very important influences which affect the land, the oceans, the atmosphere and the interactions between them.

The land factors which reduce the quality of life on earth are top soil erosion, water shortage, deforestation, desertification, diminishing biodiversity and pollution. The interaction of many activities on these factors can have serious adverse effects on the quality of life. The important question is to understand the mechanisms, consequences and the requirements and possibilities for remedial actions.

The oceans are the least known part of the Earth's surface but their interaction with vegetation provides the lung of the Earth. The oceans are rich in resources ; some of which are vulnerable to pollution and some of which when exploited, can cause pollution. There is an increasing need to monitor pollution both as an aid to its prevention and to lessen its effects. Understanding the oceans, for example the forces and dynamics that sustain the Gulf Stream, is of major importance to the future well being of Europe.

The atmosphere provides the air we breathe, and is the principal means of interaction between the ocean and land, as well as providing protection against damaging radiation from space. One of the main concems is pollution and its impact on the performance of the atmosphere in sustaining life. Some pollution comes from natural sources, volcanoes and organic decay, but much has its origin in human activity.

These factors are of vital irnportance to life on Earth, and understanding the impact of human activity on the environment is essential if sustainable development is to continue. Having determined the relationship between the causes and the effects on the environment, then the necessary regulation and policing will need to be agrced at a global level and this is discussed in a later chapter.

Observations from space will be essential to provide much of the global data necessary firstly to provide understanding and secondly for long-term monitoring. But this is not the only means and it is likely that a combination will be required of ground-based observations and observations using geostationary satellites, orbiting satellites and high altitude long endurance systems (HALEs aircraft). Such monitoring will be long term and more effort needs to be made to establish low cost observation systems. For example micro miniaturisation might enable small satellites to provide more frequent observations of a given area and at lower cost than through larger systems.

There have been other suggestions of using space to aid the environment, such as space disposal of nuclear waste (highly active long life items). Although conceivable in economic terms, launch safety requirements make it impractical at present. Perhaps a more immediate problem is the debris pollution in Earth's near space caused by space activity itself. It is becoming an increasing threat to space operations particularly since every impact with debris has the potential to create even more debris and consequently more impacts.

L'exploration de nouvelles stratégies de survie doit être considéré comme un besoin fondamental de l'espèce humaine.

Les éthologues font observer que si, à terme d'une ou deux générations, la survie peut s'accomoder de la construction de niches de plus en plus confortables et protégées, la perpétuation de l'Espèce à long terme nécessite l'expérimentation de nouvelles situations, plus inconfortables, qui seules peuvent assurer le maintien de facultés d'adaptation et de résistance aux accidents.

C'est sans doute pour cette raison que toutes les espèces animales sont dotées d'un instinct d'exploration, véritable garantie biologique de leur ardeur à survivre.

Traduit dans la vie quotidienne, la pulsion d'aventure s'exprime à la fois dans la vie professionnelle (la prise de risque entrepreneuriale) et dans la vie personnelle avec les loisirs risqués tels que l'alpinisme, la plongée, le trekking et, à un moindre degré, le tourisme classique.

L'expérience spatiale a été perçue par le public comme un symbole de la capacité humaine d'habiter de nouveaux territoires. Mais elle ne concerne encore que quelques dizaines de personnes, envoyées dans l'espace après un entraînement poussé, subissant une discipline militaire pour effectuer des expériences scientifiques dans des vaisseaux inconfortables.

L'Espace est aujourd'hui dans la situation où se trouvait l'aviation au temps des frères Wright : des exploits de spécialistes qui font rêver le public.

Cent ans après les frères Wright, un milliard de voyageurs prennent l'avion chaque année, soit un sixième de l'effectif de l'espèce humaine. Combien de voyageurs de l'Espace y aura-t-il dans un siècle, alors que la population mondiale aura doublé ? Peut-être pas deux milliards, car l'Espace n'est pas une destination de même nature qu'un autre lieu terrestre, mais sans doute plusieurs millions.

Les avions actuels montent à 10 Km d'altitude. Pour expérimenter un vol en apesanteur dans une station spatiale, il suffit de monter à 100 Km, soit dix fois plus. Il n'y a pas de raison de penser qu'un tel transport ne puisse devenir couramment praticable, dans de bonnes conditions de sécurité et à un prix abordable.

D'ores et déjà, une enquête récente a montré que, pour un prix de 100 000 $, un million de clients seraient prêts à tenter l'expérience (soit une recette potentielle de 100 G$, 8 fois le budget annuel de la NASA).

Il faut donc que l'industrie spatiale se prépare à construire des lanceurs (ou des combinaisons d'avions et de fusées) et des stations capables d'accueillir un très large public.

En ce qui concerne les stations, il faut s'attendre à des économies d'échelle de plusieurs ordres de grandeur.

Les techniques spatiales actuelles sont encore très imprégnées de leur héritage terrestre. Elles utilisent des treillis de poutrelles rigides travaillant en compression là où il suffirait de structures gonflables et de câbles travaillant en tension.

D'autre part le coût d'une station est, en première approximation, proportionnel à sa surface, alors que sa capacité d'accueil est proportionnelle à son volume.

Avec des solutions mieux adaptées au contexte de l'Espace, on pourrait donc espérer construire des installations de grande taille pour des prix voisins de ceux des stations actuelles.

Il serait dès à présent utile de concevoir les architectures possibles de bases de vie pour quelques centaines de personnes, d'une dimension de quelques centaines de mètres, inspirées par exemple de ce que O'Neill avait imaginé avec ses étudiants.

Plusieurs cosmonautes admettent que l'expérience spatiale a changé leur philosophie même si, comme dans l'apologue de la caverne de Platon, il leur est difficile de dire comment et en quoi. Le seul fait de monter au ciel et de voir de haut notre demeure terrestre ouvre la conscience sur la fragilité de l'écosystème et les limites de nos horizons. Et l'évolution de la conscience est le signe que l'aventure a eu lieu.

Au delà du spectacle, l'expérience de l'apesanteur et des conditions de vie dans l'Espace est un dépaysement plus fort que les visites offertes par le tourisme terrestre en cela qu'elle atteint la physiologie du corps, le sens de l'équilibre, les réflexes du système végétatif.

Il s'agit donc d'expériences vitales bien plus que de connaissance intellectuelle. C'est pourquoi il faut aussi se poser à leur sujet des questions nouvelles, telles que les suivantes :

1- L'accouchement dans l'Espace : le moment le plus important de la vie, la naissance, est évidemment l'objet de la plus grande vigilance. On a pu constater, ces dernières décennies, l'intérêt du public pour les nouvelles méthodes d'accouchement, y compris dans l'eau.

Sans doute, la majorité des femmes n'est pas intéressée à faire des "enfants de l'espace", mais, sur la centaine de millions de naissances qui se produisent chaque année, il ne serait pas abusif de compter que une pour mille, soit cent mille pourrait souhaiter s'y dérouler, offrant ainsi, dès le départ, une expérience et un statut exceptionnel au nouveau né.

2- Le sport dans l'Espace : Dans une station cylindrique tournant sur elle-même, la gravité est nulle sur l'axe de rotation et règlable sur la périphérie, puisqu'elle est proportionnelle au carré de la vitesse de rotation. Ceci donne des possibilités beaucoup plus spectaculaires que sur terre. Or, le sport de haut niveau et devenu un spectacle. Son développement dans l'Espace pourrait se faire en deux phases.

La première, expérimentale, serait la construction d'une station destinée à tester les performances des athlètes en gravité réduite et à établir les règles particulières au sport spatial. La seconde serait la construction d'un ensemble de grande capacité pour les jeux olympiques de l'Espace en 2100.

Le programme complet pour rendre l'aventure spatiale accessible à un large public ne se limite évidemment pas à ces deux propositions. Si l'on essaie d'imaginer la répartition des installations ouvertes aux non spécialistes, il apparaît :

1- Plusieurs constructions en orbite basse (100 à 1000 Km)

2- au moins une base lunaire et une étape en orbite autour de la lune.

3- ultérieurement, une station étape aux points de Lagrange et une autre, éloignée, dans la ceinture d'astéroïdes.

Les jardins de l'Espace : Ces stations lointaines seraient destinées particulièrement à expérimenter la maintenance d'écosystèmes complets dans l'Espace et la possibilité d'utiliser, pour la construction spatiale, les matériaux prélevés dans l'espace, notamment sur les astéroïdes.

Ainsi l'aventure, c'est à dire l'exploration d'autres conditions de survie s'étendrait, au delà de l'espèce humaine, à l'ensemble des systèmes vivants. L'Homme, en effet, ne peut espérer s'installer durablement dans l'Espace sans s'entourer d'une Nature. Il lui faut emmener un écosystème qui recycle le gaz carbonique, l'eau, les déchets et constitue un ensemble complet capable de se réparer et de se perpétuer, ce qu'on a appelé une biosphère.

L'aventure, alors, ne serait plus seulement une exploration mais une mission : l'Homme se prépare à devenir le messager de la Vie à travers les étoiles.