Most historians of technology present technical change as a collection of separate unpredictable inventions followed by a diffusion (innovation) process. Looking at civilization changes, we can also observe that, from time to time, changes involved by some innovations or combinations of innovations are so important that they transform the whole technical system and the survival conditions of human beings, therefore civilization as a whole. Technical systems transitions are secular processes. They generate important social perturbations, one of which is due to the fact that the new system pushes aside as obsolete former system's know how, generating massive exclusion of manpower.

Transitions concern four poles : materials, energy, time scale and Man-biosphere relations. The first transition that can be identified occurs around the 6th century BC, with the spread of linear writing, money emission and accounting, sustained by the development of navigation technologies and international trade under phenician influence. At the same time, the religious landscape is also transformed : Bouddha, Lao Tseu, Confucius, the presocratic philosophers... Another probably occured around the 3rd century AD. If we limit ourselves to the last millenium, we can point three technical systemic changes :

The medieval agrarian revolution started in europe by 11th century (some authors detect early signs during the 10th). The turnpoint was the departure of the chevalry for the crusades (1095), which gave the opportunity to their subordinates to use the iron facilities to produce tools for agriculture, starting point of new agricultural settlements. In some regions like brittany, two thirds of the forests were replaced by farm land during the 12th century. In a second stage, the financial difficulty of the monasteries drew them to technological services. They turned to be the research establisments of the time, working through an international network, capitalizing the experiences of crops year after years, introducing a new rationality in seeds and animals selection.

After two centuries of prosperity, the population had grown up to saturation (approximately 40 / Km2). Around 1300 started the decline : two centuries of hunger, plague and war during which the population decreased back to its former level of 20 / Km2. The period usually called "renaissance" is in fact the end of these dramatic times. By 1500, the forests had grown back, the surviving population was resistant to contagion, and the 12th century inventions were to be remade at the service of italian princes.

The starting point of the industrial revolution is also international. Around 1700, the competition between the silk handicrafts made in India and domestic wool products made in England, generated the receptivity to the invention and development of mechanical textiles machines, replacing former rural manpower. But the mass consequences all over Europe, namely rural emigration and the constitution of the urban proletariat, appeared only during the first half of 19th century, and were at the origin of the 1848 revolution, which led the ruling class to a massive effort in basic education, reshaping of cities and building of modern infrastructures.

Anyhow, industrialization is a long process, which reaches the ex colonised countries only at the end of 20th century, and also transforms agriculture during the second half of 20th century. This process creates a new wave of mass emigration to the cities, generating a new context of violence.

The dominant poles of the industrial revolution are the Materials - Energy ones, and that is related whith the materialistic thinking of these two centuries

The industrial revolution is still not ended worlwide, yet a new transition in the technical system appears. We can identify the poles of this new system. They are already on the market, but they have not yet produced massive consequences on employment and human settlements. In a sense, we are at a rather good period to work on forcasting : the technology has appeared, and what we have to do is to speculate on it's interaction with society.

The dominant poles of the cognitive revolution are time scale (the nanosecond of microprocessors) and man-biosphere relations, the power of mankind over life being suddenly increased by the developments of biotechnology. The cognitive approach, elaborated by th so-called cognitive sciences, replaces progressively the materialistic one.

Our forecasting work starts with the question : what changes in civilization go with this new technical system ? Probably the end of materialism, a new relationship with Nature, a cognitive economy and other forms of religion...