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Religion forecast is not an easy task, particularly if one notices that the official state of religious affiliations is even very difficult to establish, and reflects the viewpoint of the organisation who draws the map. The one above, fore instance, might appear provocative, as it gives to "scientism" the status of a "dominant belief" on the same level as hinduism or christianism. But when looking at what happens precisely what happens when the water of a sacred source appears to be contaminated, as described in the film of Satyajit Ray "the public enemy", one sees that scientific measurements have to compete with other beliefs, and that they will not appear acceptable as long as they bring contradiction to the dominant "status of knowledge".
The forecast drawn by Samuel Huntington in the middle nineties (the civilisation shock) can be roughly be described by the following statement : Nation States have been the actors of wars during the 19th and 20th centuries. It is less the case, and in the future, the actors in conflicts should be ethnico-religious communities. One can obviously measure the reality of that statement looking, for instance, at former Yugoslavia or Indonesia during the second half of the nineties, as well as middle east and diverse troubles in Africa. Therefore, religion is actually not bringing peace to mankind, at it is supposed to do, but war.
Anyhow, in the long run, no civilisation can stand long with religious practices in contradiction whith daily life practice. Each technical system bears its survival practice and theefore gives shape to underlying religious assumptions. For instance, chamanism appears through a wide range of forms, but always fits with the survival technology of the hunting civilisation in which it takes place. Transe, identification with animals and natural forces, are practices quite useful to hunters. Monotheism goes with agriculture, kingdoms and empires. Science goes with industry. And the cognitive civilisation should generate totally new forms of spirituality, that should be unifying factor after the present conflictual phase.
see, in french "préliminaires à une prospective des religions"
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