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Environment
Regarding the state of planetary ecosystem, the main concern is the progressive decline of the biosphere, regarding the diversity of species and the so called "carrying capacity" of the soil and of the seas. Thus, one can point at the beginning of 21st century a wide range of "crises areas" due to desertification, erosion and deforestation, the latter being the main cause of decline in biodiversity. Looking at the following map, one can see that all continents are concerned, except Nothern Europe, only facing some local pollution problems.
Only a part of this situation appears to be a consequence of farming overload, though it touches regions suffering heavy unbalance between local food resources and population, like Maghreb, Middle East, Sahel, Mexico...
Obviously, forest overload due to man activity (paper, fire wood and industrial wood) appears as being the major ecological problem at the beginning of 21st century. Nothern countries, as Canada and Scandinavia, have issued laws protecting forests, first step towards enforcing sustainable development. But the pression of economic forces is actually of a different order of magnitude. In a divided world, no obstacle appears able to contain their excessive activity. In fact, intermediate forests, like the european ones are increasing, due to favourable tax policy. But tropical forests are under destructive pressure. This fact is a major threat on the global ecosystem, because they are the major reservoir of biodiversity. According to some approximate evaluations, around 15,000 species would disappear each year as a result of deforestation, over a global stock of 1,700,000 species already observed, and may be six times more unknown.
The greenhouse effect
the global warming of the planet due to the presence of carbon dioxyde in the atmosphere has been clearly established, modellised and verified through the bubbles of fossile air contained in hundreds of thousand years old ice from antarctic. The emissions of carbon dioxyde due to human activities burning coal, fuel or gaz should increase, according to our energy scenario, by approximately 3° celsius the average temperature of the atmosphere. But this increase should be higher close to the poles than at equatorial levels. Therefore, regions like Siberia and nothern Canada may become easier for new human settlements while the desertification process should still be in progress in the South. One should therefore expect an increase in South-North migrations, as stated in our last demography map. Another important feature of the resulting climate transform should be an increase in climate instabilities, generating an increased number of storms and typhoons, like the ones that appeared during the last years of 20th century.
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Looking at the above maps, one can see that, during the late 20th century, the decisions regarding energy use, and therefore carbon dioxyde emissions were made by the so called "developed" countries. One can see also that, in the scope of a world unification of the technical system, it will no more be the case during 21st century. The main decision makers regarding global warming are, and will be more in the future, China and India. Fortunately, at least one of these countries, namely India, has a great awareness regarding natural equilibrium.
Anyhow, according to our relatively moderate assumptions, the forecast for 21st century's ecosystem shows new deserts and severe threats on the main tropical forests.
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