2100.accueil

The over population risk has not been banished but the conditions necessary for the human species to regulate its number are easy to state :

• world-wide contraception as a result of education (particularly of women) and a change in attitudes (tribal and religious attitudes).

• economic prosperity as a result of technological competence (education) and the formation of constitutional societies in which entrepreneurs can carry on their business without risk of being robbed, suffering criminal activity or being paralyzed by monopolies, corporations or bureaucracies.

It is not only a question of reproduction but of a coherent set of behaviour, initiating a development spiral based on technical know-how and concern for the quality of service.

If, on the contrary, society falls into the hands of warlords as we have seen recently in Somalia, Sudan and Cambodia, or criminal systems hold sway as in Italy or South America or if fundamentalism and tribalism do not permit birth control, then the impoverishment of the population provokes a biological survival reflex. The number of children increases which further increases poverty and other hazards associated with over population; illness, violence, drugs.

A spiral of decline thus commences or brute force takes over driving out competence and reducing opportunities for entrepreneurial activities.

Contraception has increased tenfold over the last quarter century. It has risen most in developing countries. From the year 2000, 560 million women will be using contraceptive methods, i.e. 1 in 2 women of child bearing age. Women will be deciding the most important issue in the next century; how many human beings will exist on earth in the year 2100 and they will decide by regulating births according to their own values.

This will mark the return of the feminine. I say 'return' in remembrance of the time of mother-goddesses and matriarchy. In a society where less children are born, more care is devoted to their life and quality is preferred to quantity. Love becomes a stake in survival. One can refer not just to female power but above all to a stress on feminine values; the quality of relationships, affection, the protection of life, harmony with nature, respecting biological rhythms. At the same time masculine values such as authority, conquest, assertion which go hand in hand with the stages of conquering expansion will diminish.

The first results of fertility regulation became apparent at the beginning of the 80s. Voluntary birth limitation had begun in all continents and prospects were becoming less alarming. From the middle of the 80s onwards United Nations calculations foresaw a levelling off of world population, at approximately 10 billion around 2100. We have re-examined this work, adjusting the hypotheses they used, which we considered over-optimistic especially with regard to birth control in India and China. The first calculations we made, under the assumption of a stabilization of fertility around 2.1 children per woman result in the above graph. It gives a stabilisation at about 12 billion inhabitants around 2140-2160 (instead of 10 in 2100). Implicit in this is a 'demographic transition' from an old regime of high fertility and high juvenile mortality to a new regime of low fertility and low mortality.

During the 90's, the decline of fertility appeared faster and deeper than expected. Thus, the assumption that the level of 2.1 children per woman will be the long term tendancy, leading to a stable population, appears less than likely. It may be added also that generalization of free market economy accelerates the movement. As an example, one may quote that fertility has been cut down to half of its value in east Germany during the three years following the fall of the wall. Therefore, new scenarios have to be built, with a long term tendancy of fertility much lower, leading to a dicrease of world population. The following graphs shows such scenarios, where long term fertility is supposed to stabilize at 1.9, 1.7 children per woman.

But it is now necessary to go further into the deep analysis of the major question of the coming centuries, regarding human species : How to restore equilibrium with Nature ? Some evaluations have been made in the 90's by british researchers.

The result is the following : if we assume a quality of life similar to present european one and consider that, in the long term, equilibrium means no consumption of non renewable resources and maintenance of renewable ones (forests, sea ecosystem...), then the carrying capacity of the earth (namely the number of human beings resources can feed) is approximately 2.5 Billions.

As we went over 6 Billions around 2000, such a constraint would mean, in the long term, dividing the present number of the human species by more than 2. Of course, another path could be to divide human per capita consumption by the same factor, and maybe also exploit new technical opportunities like building ocean cities...

But, if we assume as a first hypothesis the 2.5 Billion long term stabilization, then the corresponding scenario would need a limit fertility of 1.5 children per woman for the next 2 century, as we know that the shortage of natural resources will become an inescapable constraint around 2200... Then the evolution would look like this :

Low mortality, you exclaim! What about AIDS ? Is there a risk of AIDS decimating humanity as plagues used to ? While it is true that in certain African countries the proportion of HIV positives is so high (30% of certain age groups is quoted) that the demographic pyramid is bound to be affected, it should be remembered however that only cataclysmic events have a major effect on demography. The two world wars only caused slight indentations, now erased in regard to the First World War, in the European pyramid. However, AIDS is nowhere near as contagious as the great plague of 1348 which killed a third of a defenceless European population in one year. It also impels control of one's sexuality so its prevention will accelerate the diffusion of birth control and the rise in feminine values and perhaps slightly lower the level of 13 billion in the graph above.

Demography	Education	Environment	Energy
Health	Religion	Food supply	Communication

Demography	Education	Environment	Energy
Health	Religion	Food supply	Communication